Hurricane Paloma is rapidly strenthening today as it approaches Cuba.  Recently satellite images show that Hurricane Paloma has developed a “dreaded” pinhole eye.  This indicates the the central core of the storm is well developed and that further strengthening is likely.  The current SST is the northwest Caribbean are still relatively warm and support strengthening for Paloma.

Hurricane Paloma - IR Satellite 11-07-2008

The upper level wind shear for Hurricane Paloma is favorable for strengthening and will remain favorable for the next day.  There is currently a large anti-cyclone which is providing good outflow for the storm.  However, after Hurricane Paloma makes landfall with Cuba, the upper level winds are forecast to strengthen and will begin to disrupt the circulation.  There is a large trough stretched across the U.S. that is forecast to move off toward the east.  As this trough gets closer to Paloma, the wind shear will increase and this will also cause the cyclone to accelerate toward the northeast.  Over the next coulpe of days Hurricane Paloma will move into the Atlantic Ocean where it will undergo a transition to an extra-tropical cyclone.

Hurricane Paloma - Wind Shear Analysis 11-07-2008

Tropical Storm Marco has rapidly formed in the Bay of Campeche.  Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph.  This morning Marco was nothing more than a low pressure area.  Now, it has the potential to become a hurricane before making landfall in southern Mexico.  Marco is currently a very small tropical system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  It is much smaller than the tropical storm seen in the Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm Marco 10-06-2008

Here is what the NHC thinks about Tropical Storm Marco:

A TIMELY MISSION FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS...  
TASKED WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE...REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION  
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A  
TROPICAL STORM.  PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE 53 KT AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL  
WINDS WERE 61 KT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF  
ABOUT 55 KT.  SINCE THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ARE  
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN IN LINE  
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  MARCO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE  
STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND ACCORDINGLY A HURRICANE  
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND  
CONTINUES...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING LATER  
THIS EVENING.  

INITIAL MOTION...295/9...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS  
ESTIMATE.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN  
HEADING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE  
TO THE NORTH OF MARCO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY  
SLIGHTLY TO RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE  
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.  

WE THANK THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON FOR THEIR QUICK  
RESPONSE TO OUR SHORT-NOTICE REQUEST TO INVESTIGATE THIS STORM.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  

INITIAL      06/2100Z 19.5N  94.7W    55 KT  
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  95.6W    60 KT  
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 20.5N  97.0W    60 KT  
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND  
 48HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED 

There is a decent chance that severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will produce a couple of tornadoes.  The air mass over TX/OK region is extremely humid.  Furthermore, the winds are strong and turn clockwise with height, so there is plenty of wind shear.  The one inhibiting factor is that the surface temps won’t get too warm today.  Therefore, the thermodynamic environment is not favorable for widespread tornadoes.  The scenario looks similar to early spring systems, lots of shear but little thermo.

Tornado Outlook - 10-06-2008

Nevertheless, the Storm Prediction Center has the OK/TX region bullseyed in a 5% chance for tornadoes.

Here is what the SPC is thinking:

MAIN FEATURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S…WHICH CONSISTS
OF TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS- ONE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
ANOTHER EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  SRN MOST IMPULSE
HAS SUSTAINED CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARCING FROM CENTRAL
TX INTO CENTRAL OK/SWRN AND CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ON WV IMAGERY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS OK/KS/NRN
TX…WHICH WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FORECAST TO EXTEND N-S INVOF I-35 FROM CENTRAL KS INTO
N-CENTRAL TX BY LATE TODAY.

DESPITE THE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM…VERY
STRONG SHEAR /ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST FEW KMS/ SUGGESTS EVEN MODEST
HEATING WILL INCREASE RISK OF ORGANIZED STORMS- INCLUDING LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH THIS LEADING ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF EARLY DAY
STORMS…NEARER THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK INTO TX…AS MODEST
HEATING/INSTABILITY OCCURS WITHIN MID LEVEL DRY SLOT.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE SFC-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
150-250 M2/S2…WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 40 KT.  GIVEN LARGE LOW
LEVEL RH/LOW LCLS AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR…RISK OF A BRIEF
TORNADO AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS…ESPECIALLY IF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS CAN EVOLVE.  ALTHOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING…OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK.

After nearly a week of quiet weather across the Atlantic Basin, it looks like things may be heating up again. There is a fairly well organized tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  Current weather conditions in the region are marginally favorable for development.  The sea surface temperatures over the Caribbean are extremely warm in comparison to the rest of the Atlantic Basin.  The one inhibiting factor for the moment is the strong wind shear.  However, this wind shear is forecast to decrease over the next couple of days and then Tropical Storm Kyle could form. Below is an image from the NHC illustrating the region of interest.

Tropical Atlantic Cyclone Formation Probability 9/20/08

If tropical storm Kyle forms, it would likely strengthen into a hurricane due to the favorable climatology for hurricanes this time of the year.  The month of September is the most active time period for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.

Here is the National Hurricane Center’s discussion of the potential Kyle:

“A TROPICAL WAVE…ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES…AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION…AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY…IF NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY.”

Hurricane Ike came ashore as a maximum category 2 hurricane on Galveston Island.  If the winds had increased by just 1 mph it would have been a category 3 hurricane.  Luckily for Galveston, it was spared the worst of the storm… the 15+ foot storm surge.  Because Hurricane Ike made landfall on the east side of Galveston Island, the worst storm surge devastated the Bolivar Peninsula instead.  The image below show the path of the center of circulation from Hurricane Ike.

Hurricane Ike Landfall Path - Sept 2008

As you can see in the image above the Bolivar Peninsula was on the “dirty”, or east, side of Hurricane Ike.  This forced a 15+ foot storm surge over the low lying peninsula.  Points 1, 2, 3, and 4 are locations in which the USGS took before and after photos to estimate the damage caused by Ike.

The first of the photos shows two blocks of beach houses that were completely destroyed by the storm surge.  Notice that almost every single one of these houses was on stilts too.  Unfortunately, the 6-8 foot stilts was not enough to save these houses.

Hurricane Ike Damage Photo 1 Comparison - Crystal Beach, TX

The second before and after photo shows even more beach houses obliterated by Hurricane Ike.  Notice the tremendous amount of sand that was washed ashore from Ike.  The grass across the photo is hidden beneath the feet of newly deposited sand.  Furthermore, houses as far as 1000 feet away from the coast were destroyed too.  Had Hurricane Ike’s landfall deviated further to the west, these would be the images from Galveston Island instead.

Hurricane Ike Damage Photo 2 Comparison - Crystal Beach, TX

Hurricane Ike made landfall along Galveston Island just southeast of Houston, Texas early Saturday morning.  Ike came ashore as a maximum Cat 2 / minimum Cat 3 hurricane with winds of 110-115 mph.  Due to the large size of Hurricane Ike, the storm surge was greater than what would be expected with a normal Cat 2/3 storm.  The rise in water is as high as 20 feet in many locations and most of Galveston Island and the Bolivar Penninsula are under water.  The storm surge will continue flooding coastal areas whereas the winds will likely affect skyscrappers in downtown Houston.  The winds just 200 feet above the ground are approximately 135 mph and higher.  This will likely break several windows in these buildings due to flying debris.

Below are images of Hurricane Ike as it came ashore.

Hurricane Ike Landfall - Radar 05:16Z Saturday 9/12/2008

Hurricane Ike Landfall - Rainbow IR Satellite 03:45Z Saturday 9/12/2008

The projected path of Hurricane Ike takes it over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.  Sea Surface temperatures in the Gulf are greater than 29 C.  In fact, some localized portions of the Gulf have temperatures that are even warmer.  The image below shows several loop currents directly in the path of Hurricane Ike.  These loop currents are regions in which the water temperatures is relatively warmer than the average temperature in the Gulf.  Furthermore, they are areas of higher oceanic heat content which is a food source for hurricanes.

Projected Path of Hurricane Ike 9/10/2008

As Hurricane Ike traverses these loops currents, it will likely go through rapid strengthening phases.  Upper level winds should also be favorable for strengthening Hurricane Ike all the way up to land fall.  The upper level wind shear remains light which enables Ike to get rooted into the high oceanic heat content.  Several hurricane models bring Ike ashore along the Texas coast as a CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE.

The GFDL forecast model shows Hurricane Ike of the Texas coast near Corpus Christi as a category 5 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 936 mb and a 950 mb wind of 138 kts.

Hurricane Ike - GFDL Forecast Model 9/10/2008 | Valid for 6pm Friday Evening

The HWRF forecast model shows Hurricane Ike with a minimum central pressure of 907 mb with a maximum 950 mb wind of 136 kts.

Hurricane Ike - HWRF Forecast Model 9/10/2008 | Valid for 6pm Friday Evening

Hurricane Ike is currently over the southern coast of Cuba.  Half of the hurricane is over land and the other half is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  It appears that the central core, or eyewall, will continue to graze the southern coast of cuba for the next 36 hours.  In the Cuban radar loop below you can see that Hurricane Ike has remained relatively intact.  The inner core has not been disrupted by land as much as had been anticipated.  Furthermore, the core is partially over water, which will help minimize friction and should allow the cyclone to maintain its current intensity.

Hurricane Ike - Cuba Radar Loop 9-8-2008

Once Hurricane Ike moves into the Gulf of Mexico it will have a favorable environment for strengthening.  The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf are well over 29 C.  Plus, there is a very warm loop current which will add fuel to the fire.  If Ike can maintain its core while passing over the western part of Cuba Tuesday then it will likely gain category 5 intensity.  The satellite image below shows a well developed category 2 hurricane.

Hurricane Ike - Enhanced IR Satellite 9-8-2008

For the past several days, hurricane forecast models have trended further to the west with the track of Hurricane Ike.  They now push Hurricane Ike into the Gulf of Mexico by Tues-Wed this week.  Additionally several models make Hurricane Ike a major hurricane in the Gulf with winds of at least 115 mph.  Once Ike enters the Gulf conditions will be favorable for strengthening with warm sea surface temps and light wind shear.  The GFDL forecast model has Hurricane Ike making landfall in New Orleans as a category 4 major hurricane.  In the image below you can see the 126 hour GFDL forecast shows the strongest winds of Hurricane Ike on the eastern side heading straight toward New Orleans.

To see satellite, radar, and computer models of Hurricane Ike visit: TwisterVideos.com - Hurricane Ike

New Orleans - Hurricane Ike GFDL Model 9-7-2008

When Hurricane Gustav entered the Gulf of Mexico, its core circulation was disorganized from the passage over Cuba.  Therefore, it took longer for it to restrengthen. Hurricane Ike has already been fluctuating between a Category 3 and 4 hurricane for the past several days.  It is expected to slam into the eastern coast of Cuban late Sunday / early Monday.  If it can emerge into the Gulf of Mexico unscathed by the terrain of Cuba, it will likely restrengthen faster than Hurriacne Gustav did.

New Orleans - Hurricane Ike NHC Forecast

Hurricane (tropical storm) Hanna is currently grazing the coast of South Carolina just east of Georgetown.  It is expected to make landfall between Georgetown and Myrtle Beach during the early morning hours Saturday.  As per the 11 pm advisory from the NHC, Hanna is a strong tropical storm with winds of 60 kts.  It is very likely that Hanna will make landfall as a low-end category 1 hurricane with winds of at least 65 kts.  There is not much difference between the intensity of a 60 kt tropical storm and a 65 kt hurricane.  Therefore, the greatest impact from Hanna will be flooding caused by torrential rainfall and the storm surge.

Here is a radar snapshot of Hanna as it was about to make landfall.  Notice that there is a partial eyewall, approximately 2/3.  If this continues to wrap up Hanna could become a little stronger.

Charleston, SC - Long Range Radar 9-5-2008