It’s Official, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Projected Path

Hurricane Ike rapidly strengthened from a strong tropical storm to a Category 4 Hurricane with winds of 115 knots within a 12 hour period on Wednesday.  This is an even faster intensification than what we saw with Hurricane Gustav.  Other notable rapid strengthening storms are Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Ethel.

To view the latest coordinates of Ike visit: Hurricane Ike Coordinates.

To view the latest satellite imagery of Ike visit: Hurricane Ike Satellite Images.

There are a number of factors that led to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Ike.  First, it is currently over some very warm water in the central Atlantic, as seen per the SST link below.  Second, there is virtually no wind shear aloft, see image below, allowing strong deep convection to get rooted into the warm oceanic heat content.  And of course, it now has a well developed eye.  Earlier on Wednesday the satellite presentation of Ike looked good but it lacked an inner core.  Once the core developed Hurricane Ike exploded.

Wind Shear Analysis - Tropical Atlantic 9-3-2008

The projected path of Hurricane Ike is toward the west over the next several days.  By the weekend Hurricane Ike will be off the east coast of Florida as a potentially category 5 hurricane.  Beyond 5 days several models then move Ike up the east coast.  More details regarding the path will be worked out with later model runs.  To view the latest computer models for Hurricane Ike visit: Hurricane Ike Model Forecast.