Tropics Heating Up Again!!! Hurricane Kyle is Next

After nearly a week of quiet weather across the Atlantic Basin, it looks like things may be heating up again. There is a fairly well organized tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  Current weather conditions in the region are marginally favorable for development.  The sea surface temperatures over the Caribbean are extremely warm in comparison to the rest of the Atlantic Basin.  The one inhibiting factor for the moment is the strong wind shear.  However, this wind shear is forecast to decrease over the next couple of days and then Tropical Storm Kyle could form. Below is an image from the NHC illustrating the region of interest.

Tropical Atlantic Cyclone Formation Probability 9/20/08

If tropical storm Kyle forms, it would likely strengthen into a hurricane due to the favorable climatology for hurricanes this time of the year.  The month of September is the most active time period for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.

Here is the National Hurricane Center’s discussion of the potential Kyle:

“A TROPICAL WAVE…ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES…AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION…AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY…IF NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY.”