Hurricane Paloma - IR Satellite 11-07-2008

The upper level wind shear for Hurricane Paloma is favorable for strengthening and will remain favorable for the next day.  There is currently a large anti-cyclone which is providing good outflow for the storm.  However, after Hurricane Paloma makes landfall with Cuba, the upper level winds are forecast to strengthen and will begin to disrupt the circulation.  There is a large trough stretched across the U.S. that is forecast to move off toward the east.  As this trough gets closer to Paloma, the wind shear will increase and this will also cause the cyclone to accelerate toward the northeast.  Over the next coulpe of days Hurricane Paloma will move into the Atlantic Ocean where it will undergo a transition to an extra-tropical cyclone.

Hurricane Paloma - Wind Shear Analysis 11-07-2008

Tropical Storm Marco 10-06-2008

Here is what the NHC thinks about Tropical Storm Marco:

A TIMELY MISSION FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS...  
TASKED WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE...REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION  
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A  
TROPICAL STORM.  PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE 53 KT AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL  
WINDS WERE 61 KT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF  
ABOUT 55 KT.  SINCE THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ARE  
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN IN LINE  
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  MARCO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE  
STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND ACCORDINGLY A HURRICANE  
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND  
CONTINUES...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING LATER  
THIS EVENING.  

INITIAL MOTION...295/9...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS  
ESTIMATE.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN  
HEADING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE  
TO THE NORTH OF MARCO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY  
SLIGHTLY TO RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE  
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.  

WE THANK THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON FOR THEIR QUICK  
RESPONSE TO OUR SHORT-NOTICE REQUEST TO INVESTIGATE THIS STORM.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  

INITIAL      06/2100Z 19.5N  94.7W    55 KT  
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  95.6W    60 KT  
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 20.5N  97.0W    60 KT  
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND  
 48HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED 

Tornado Outlook - 10-06-2008

Nevertheless, the Storm Prediction Center has the OK/TX region bullseyed in a 5% chance for tornadoes.

Here is what the SPC is thinking:

MAIN FEATURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S…WHICH CONSISTS
OF TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS- ONE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
ANOTHER EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  SRN MOST IMPULSE
HAS SUSTAINED CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARCING FROM CENTRAL
TX INTO CENTRAL OK/SWRN AND CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ON WV IMAGERY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS OK/KS/NRN
TX…WHICH WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH FORECAST TO EXTEND N-S INVOF I-35 FROM CENTRAL KS INTO
N-CENTRAL TX BY LATE TODAY.

DESPITE THE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM…VERY
STRONG SHEAR /ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWEST FEW KMS/ SUGGESTS EVEN MODEST
HEATING WILL INCREASE RISK OF ORGANIZED STORMS- INCLUDING LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH THIS LEADING ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF EARLY DAY
STORMS…NEARER THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK INTO TX…AS MODEST
HEATING/INSTABILITY OCCURS WITHIN MID LEVEL DRY SLOT.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE SFC-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
150-250 M2/S2…WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 40 KT.  GIVEN LARGE LOW
LEVEL RH/LOW LCLS AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR…RISK OF A BRIEF
TORNADO AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS…ESPECIALLY IF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS CAN EVOLVE.  ALTHOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING…OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK.

Tropical Atlantic Cyclone Formation Probability 9/20/08

If tropical storm Kyle forms, it would likely strengthen into a hurricane due to the favorable climatology for hurricanes this time of the year.  The month of September is the most active time period for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.

Here is the National Hurricane Center’s discussion of the potential Kyle:

“A TROPICAL WAVE…ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES…AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION…AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY…IF NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY.”

Hurricane Ike Landfall Path - Sept 2008

As you can see in the image above the Bolivar Peninsula was on the “dirty”, or east, side of Hurricane Ike.  This forced a 15+ foot storm surge over the low lying peninsula.  Points 1, 2, 3, and 4 are locations in which the USGS took before and after photos to estimate the damage caused by Ike.

The first of the photos shows two blocks of beach houses that were completely destroyed by the storm surge.  Notice that almost every single one of these houses was on stilts too.  Unfortunately, the 6-8 foot stilts was not enough to save these houses.

Hurricane Ike Damage Photo 1 Comparison - Crystal Beach, TX

The second before and after photo shows even more beach houses obliterated by Hurricane Ike.  Notice the tremendous amount of sand that was washed ashore from Ike.  The grass across the photo is hidden beneath the feet of newly deposited sand.  Furthermore, houses as far as 1000 feet away from the coast were destroyed too.  Had Hurricane Ike’s landfall deviated further to the west, these would be the images from Galveston Island instead.

Hurricane Ike Damage Photo 2 Comparison - Crystal Beach, TX

Below are images of Hurricane Ike as it came ashore.

Hurricane Ike Landfall - Radar 05:16Z Saturday 9/12/2008

Hurricane Ike Landfall - Rainbow IR Satellite 03:45Z Saturday 9/12/2008

Projected Path of Hurricane Ike 9/10/2008

As Hurricane Ike traverses these loops currents, it will likely go through rapid strengthening phases.  Upper level winds should also be favorable for strengthening Hurricane Ike all the way up to land fall.  The upper level wind shear remains light which enables Ike to get rooted into the high oceanic heat content.  Several hurricane models bring Ike ashore along the Texas coast as a CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE.

The GFDL forecast model shows Hurricane Ike of the Texas coast near Corpus Christi as a category 5 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 936 mb and a 950 mb wind of 138 kts.

Hurricane Ike - GFDL Forecast Model 9/10/2008 | Valid for 6pm Friday Evening

The HWRF forecast model shows Hurricane Ike with a minimum central pressure of 907 mb with a maximum 950 mb wind of 136 kts.

Hurricane Ike - HWRF Forecast Model 9/10/2008 | Valid for 6pm Friday Evening

Hurricane Ike - Cuba Radar Loop 9-8-2008

Once Hurricane Ike moves into the Gulf of Mexico it will have a favorable environment for strengthening.  The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf are well over 29 C.  Plus, there is a very warm loop current which will add fuel to the fire.  If Ike can maintain its core while passing over the western part of Cuba Tuesday then it will likely gain category 5 intensity.  The satellite image below shows a well developed category 2 hurricane.

Hurricane Ike - Enhanced IR Satellite 9-8-2008

To see satellite, radar, and computer models of Hurricane Ike visit: TwisterVideos.com - Hurricane Ike

New Orleans - Hurricane Ike GFDL Model 9-7-2008

When Hurricane Gustav entered the Gulf of Mexico, its core circulation was disorganized from the passage over Cuba.  Therefore, it took longer for it to restrengthen. Hurricane Ike has already been fluctuating between a Category 3 and 4 hurricane for the past several days.  It is expected to slam into the eastern coast of Cuban late Sunday / early Monday.  If it can emerge into the Gulf of Mexico unscathed by the terrain of Cuba, it will likely restrengthen faster than Hurriacne Gustav did.

New Orleans - Hurricane Ike NHC Forecast

Here is a radar snapshot of Hanna as it was about to make landfall.  Notice that there is a partial eyewall, approximately 2/3.  If this continues to wrap up Hanna could become a little stronger.

Charleston, SC - Long Range Radar 9-5-2008

To view the latest coordinates of Ike visit: Hurricane Ike Coordinates.

To view the latest satellite imagery of Ike visit: Hurricane Ike Satellite Images.

There are a number of factors that led to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Ike.  First, it is currently over some very warm water in the central Atlantic, as seen per the SST link below.  Second, there is virtually no wind shear aloft, see image below, allowing strong deep convection to get rooted into the warm oceanic heat content.  And of course, it now has a well developed eye.  Earlier on Wednesday the satellite presentation of Ike looked good but it lacked an inner core.  Once the core developed Hurricane Ike exploded.

Wind Shear Analysis - Tropical Atlantic 9-3-2008

The projected path of Hurricane Ike is toward the west over the next several days.  By the weekend Hurricane Ike will be off the east coast of Florida as a potentially category 5 hurricane.  Beyond 5 days several models then move Ike up the east coast.  More details regarding the path will be worked out with later model runs.  To view the latest computer models for Hurricane Ike visit: Hurricane Ike Model Forecast.

Hurricane Ike Visible Satellite 9-3-2008

If Ike can develop an eyewall the resultant strengthening will yield a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane just off the east coast of Florida.  Both the GFDL and HWRF hurricane forecast models develop Ike into a category 3 hurricane just north of Hispaniola as it travels west.  Below are images from these two models at 102 hours out, which is about Sunday morning.  Notice the GFDL has a max intensity of 112 kts at 950 mb height and a minimum central pressure of 960 mb.

GFDL Forecast - Hurricane Ike 9-2-2008

The HWRF at the same time has Hurricane Ike much stronger.  The max intensity of Hurricane Ike according to the HWRF is 144 kts at 950 mb height and a minimum central pressure of 903 mb.  This would make Hurricane Ike one of the strongest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic Basin.  If the HWRF model forecast verifies, the east coast of Florida could see catastrophic damage similar to the category 5 Hurricane Andrew in 1992.  One positive note is that the GFS model stalls hurricane Ike of the Florida coast before being picked up by a cold front and whooshed out to sea.  This doesn’t help residents of the Bahamas though.

HWRF Forecast - Hurricane Ike 9-2-2008

Hurricane Gustav 2008 - Infrared Satellite

Even though Hurricane Gustav doesn’t look as organized right now, it is  till forecast to make landfall as a category 4 hurricane.  Several of the forecast models bring Gustav ashore  just southwest of New Orleans.  If this verifies a tremendous storm surge will rush into Lake Pontchartrain, which may cause some of the levees to break around the city.  A category 4 storm surge is about 15-20 feet.  Below is an animation of the 12z GFDL forecast model.  Notice that it brings the minimum central pressure back down to 940 mb just before Hurricane Gustav makes landfall in southern Louisiana.  Then after the storm makes landfall it stalls over SE Texas and might even go back out to see.

Hurricane Gustav 2008 - GFDL Model Animation

Hurricane Gustav Radar 08-30-2008

The radar image above from the Cuban radar site shows a well developed eye over the Island of Youth.  The strongest winds of this storm are located within this eyewall.  Tropical storm condition are already spreading their way into the Florida Keys as seen by the long range base reflectivity below.

Hurricane Gustav 2008 Radar 08-30-2008

Here is the current advisory for Hurricane Gustav:

As of 2 p.m. EDT (1800 UTC) August 30, Hurricane Gustav was located within 15 nautical miles of 21.6°N 82.5°W, near the Isle of Youth and about 155 mi (250 km) south of Havana, Cuba. Maximum sustained winds are 125 knots (145 mph, 230 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 InHg), and the system is moving northwest at 12 kt (14 mph, 22 km/h).

As Gustav continues on its path to the NW, it will likely strengthen some more and become a catastropic category 5 hurricane.  The current satellite presentation below looks very similar to Hurricane Ivan while it was a category 5 hurricane over the NW Caribbean in 2004.

For more satellite images visit TwisterVideos at: Hurricane Gustav Satellite Images

Hurricane Gustav Enhanced Infrared Satellite 08-30-2008

Hurricane Gustav currently looks like it will hit between either Houston and New Orleans.  A deviation from this path will have huge implications for the targeted city.  In 2005 Hurricane Rita sparked a mass evacuation of the 4 million residents of Houston alone.  We all remember what happened with Katrina too.

The satellite presentation of Hurricane Gustav continues to look more impressive this afternoon.   There is a well developed and clear eye.  If you look at the radar from Cuba you can see the intense rainbands rotating around this eye.  If the minimum pressure continues to fall below 954 mb, the winds of Gustav will increase and might push it to category 4 hurricane strength by this evening.

For current satellite images of Hurricane Gustav and current model forecast visit:

Hurricane Gustav Satellite Images

Hurricane Gustav Model Forecast

Hurricane Gustav Visible Satellite Image 08-30-2008